By Jamie Paterson, 22 August 2023

Earlier this year, it was reported that China is on track to meet its target of producing 1,200 gigawatts of wind and solar based energy five years ahead of its 2030 target. In a time where the climate crisis seems increasingly dire, this was a welcome piece of news signalling a positive development in global climate governance. Shortly after this at a joint summit with the EU, China was praised for showing leadership in addressing climate change. Considering China’s continued status as the world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, however, Beijing’s status as a climate leader seems tenuous.

Rhetoric and policy implementation

The transition to renewable energy plays a significant role in China’s fourteenth and current Five Year Plan (FYP), outlining the nation’s development goals for the 2021-2025 period. The FYP continues a trend of incorporating renewable energy into China’s development, with the addition of bolstering green finance such as carbon trading schemes. By highlighting the need to increase the share of renewable energy in China’s energy consumption as well as defining targets for the green energy transition across multiple areas of the FYP, China has implied that it values the move towards renewable energy sources as a key component of its future development. Rhetoric alone, however, would not create a perception of China as a world leader in renewable energy. 

There should be no doubt that China is a heavyweight when it comes to renewable energy capacity. Currently, just over half of China’s total energy usage is generated from renewable sources. This share is likely to keep rising for the foreseeable future, with the potential capacity of planned solar farms “triple the capacity of the US and nearly double that of Europe”. In the first half of 2023 alone, wind and solar capacity in China increased by 87 and 38 gigawatts – breaking a previous record for wind and solar expansion set in 2020. China’s image as a world leader in renewables is bolstered by the fact that Chinese solar capacity outweighs that of the rest of the world combined. Furthermore, China is by far the largest investor in the transition to renewable energy sources globally, putting $266 billion towards a green transition in 2021. This sum accounts for one third of the global total and over twice as much invested by the second largest contributor, the US. At face value, China’s rhetoric and policy implementation supports the idea that it is a global leader in renewable energy, and certainly the scale of China’s transition to renewable energy is worthy of praise. When viewed in the context of China’s fossil-fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions, though, this perception becomes less clear-cut.

The issue of emissions

China is by far the largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world today, contributing over 30% of all global CO2 emissions. In comparison, the second highest emitter, the US, produces less than half of this amount at around 13%. Chinese emissions are so high, in fact, that China’s power sector accounts for 14% of emissions worldwide, and steel and cement production produces more CO2 than the EU (accountable for around 7% of emissions). The sheer scale of China’s greenhouse gas emissions significantly impacts the idea of climate leadership, even when considering the vast capacity for renewable energy. Adding to this, research from Climate Action Tracker suggests the FYP’s renewable energy goals are highly insufficient to uphold China’s pledge to reduce emissions following the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. Crucially, while China’s emissions are expected to peak by 2025, they are then predicted to plateau until the end of the decade. This lack of action to reduce China’s high volume of emissions places its status as a climate leader into question.

Continued use of fossil fuels also diminishes China’s role as a climate leader. Despite the expansion of renewable energy in China, construction of coal power plants has sped up recently in order to boost energy security. In 2022, coal plants in China were approved at their highest level since 2015 and are being constructed on a scale six times larger than the rest of the world combined. Rapid growth in China’s use of coal power poses a threat to the international effort to curb fossil fuels as well as China’s own energy transition goals. Excluding China, the use of coal globally fell; when accounting for the rise in Chinese coal plants this trend is actually reversed.

How should we view China in the context of global climate governance?

While China’s high level of emissions and widespread use of fossil fuels have a damaging impact on worldwide efforts to mitigate climate change, its strides towards a green transition are nonetheless promising. Although China’s emissions are yet to peak, massive investment and research into renewable technology will only make a green transition more economical and efficient – both in China and internationally. Despite the hurdles facing China’s green transition, the knock-on effect of more accessible green technology and resources could bolster renewable capacity in many other countries. Provided that renewable energy in China continues its rapid expansion, the next FYP could see a decline in fossil fuel use once it is no longer deemed necessary for energy security. Such a move would likely have a pronounced impact on China’s contribution to greenhouse gas emissions and could prove a turning point in the country’s green transition.

To call China a climate leader at present seems premature: its contributions to greenhouse gas emissions, particularly through coal use, are so significant that they outweigh its bold energy policies and impressive renewable capacity. This should not entirely discredit China’s role in climate governance nor the merits of its green transition, however. Trends show an overall move away from fossil fuels which seems set to continue, and there is a promising forecast for China again beating its renewable energy targets. As the green transition in China progresses, it is likely that other countries will also accelerate their own transitions due to China’s presence in the renewable exports market. Should this transition be a success story, then the international community may look up to the example set by Beijing. If China cannot yet take up the mantle of a climate leader, then there is good reason to believe it will do so in the future.

About the author

Jamie Paterson graduated from the University of Stirling in 2020 with an MSc in International Conflict and Cooperation. His research addresses global climate governance.